Update: After looking at your comment now I can answer the question fully, the problem is your application is referencing the wrong Microsoft.Web.Administration.dll, seeing the error tells me you are referencing the IIS Express version and not the "full" IIS Version (7.0.0.0). So please modify your application code to add a reference to the one that is in c:\windows\system32\inetsrv\Microsoft.Web.Administration.dll instead.
This is a permissions problem.
You will need to make sure to run the Windows Service as an identity that is either a member of the Administrators group or SYSTEM. My guess is you might be running the service as Local Serivce or Network Service and those do not have permission to read the configuration files that sit in %windows%\system32\inetsrv\config.
Other Info:
Redirection.config is a file that IIS uses to determine if it should read its configuration from the normal path (%windir%\system32\inetsrv\config\applicationHost.config) or should read it from say an external UNC file share when centralized configuration is used for many servers. That is why this is one of the first files to be parsed and hence you get that access denied error for that specific file.
Regarding the predicting, the best thing to do would be to create it within a try/catch and handle that. There are many exceptions that could happen when reading configuration, such as permissions (you could predict this one by making sure you can read (say File.OpenText()) to Redirection.config, ApplicationHost.config in %windir%\system32\inetsrv\config but that is guessing and there are others such as access to encryption keys for passwords, invalid config, etc, etc.)