2023 New South Wales state election

The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

2023 New South Wales state election

25 March 2023

All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  First party Second party
Leader Dominic Perrottet Chris Minns
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Last election 48 seats, 41.58% 36 seats, 33.31%
Seats before 45 seats[lower-alpha 1] 36 seats[lower-alpha 2]
Leader since 5 October 2021 4 June 2021
Leader's seat Epping Kogarah
Seats needed 2 11[lower-alpha 2]

  Third party Fourth party
Leader Mark Latham
Party Greens One Nation
Last election 3 seats, 9.57% 0 seats, 1.10%
Seats before 3 seats 1 seat[lower-alpha 3]
Leader since 7 November 2018
Leader's seat MLC
Seats needed 44 46

Map of the election

Premier before election

Dominic Perrottet

Elected Premier


The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, is seeking to win a fourth successive four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

The online voting system iVote will not be in place in this election. The NSW Government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW Council elections saw 5 wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.[1]


Previous election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[2] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[3]

On 1 October 2021, Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her personal relationship with the former member for Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.[4] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[5] Findings about the case are unlikely to be released prior to the election.[6]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[7] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[8][9] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[10] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[11] In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[12] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[13] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election has prompted concern from Tim James and Matt Kean.[14]

On 29 March 2022, the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.[15][16] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.

On 17 January 2023, Labor MP Tania Mihailuk announced that she was leaving the Australian Labor Party and would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.[17]

Nazi uniform scandal

On 12 January 2023, Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.[18][19] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.[20][21]
Robert Borsak, who is the current leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.[22]

A poll found that 67% said the Nazi uniform scandal, didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Liberal coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely.[23]


The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[24] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.


Comparison between the old and new electoral district boundaries, coloured by party vote in the 2019 state election

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[25]

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[26]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[26]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[26]

  • Mulgoa – to be renamed Badgerys Creek
  • Baulkham Hills – to be renamed Kellyville
  • Ku-ring-gai – to be renamed Wahroonga
  • Seven Hills – to be renamed Winston Hills

The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat.[27]

Current seat 2019 election New seat 2021 redistribution
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 18.68 Kellyville Liberal Notional 23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote Labor Notional 1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 20.52 Wahroonga Liberal Notional 19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 22.42 Abolished
New seat Leppington Labor Notional 1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek Liberal Notional 9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills Liberal Notional 5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties

Fifteen parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[28] Bold text indicates parliamentary parties.

Electoral pendulum

This is an excerpt of the pre-election pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[29] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[lower-alpha 4] NAT 0.5%[lower-alpha 5]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall[lower-alpha 6] NAT 11.6%[lower-alpha 7]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND) LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND) LIB 13.6%
Labor seats (38)
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 0.1%
Leppington new seat ALP 1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB) ALP 1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 3.0%
Bega Michael Holland[lower-alpha 8] ALP 5.1%[lower-alpha 9]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li[lower-alpha 10] ALP 5.2%[lower-alpha 11]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.3%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton (IND) SFF 2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 4.9% v NAT
Barwon Roy Butler (IND) SFF 6.6% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND) SFF 15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% v NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 23.2% v ALP


  1. Since the previous election the Liberal Party has had two sitting MPs resign from the party (John Sidoti, Gareth Ward) and lost the 2022 Bega by-election.
  2. Labor won the Liberal-held seat of Bega in February 2022, putting their total at 37 seats. In October 2022 Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party (later joining One Nation), bringing the total Labor seats back to 36.
  3. In October 2022, Labor MP for Bankstown resigned from the party, later joining One Nation.
  4. Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  5. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  6. Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  7. While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  8. Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  9. The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  10. Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  11. While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.

Candidates and retiring MPs

The following members have announced they are not contesting the upcoming election:


  • Walt Secord MLC – announced 19 August 2022[30]
  • Adam Searle MLC – lost preselection 15 September 2022[31][32][33]
  • Shaoquett Moselmane MLC – did not nominate for endorsement[31][32][33]
  • Guy Zangari MP (Fairfield) – announced 17 October 2022[34]
  • Mick Veitch MLC – lost preselection 16 October 2022[35]
  • Paul Lynch MP (Liverpool) – not preselected November 2022[36]
  • Nick Lalich MP (Cabramatta) – announced 24 December 2022[37][38]


  • Shelley Hancock MP (South Coast) – announced 18 December 2021[39]
  • Gabrielle Upton MP (Vaucluse) – announced 6 July 2022[40]
  • Kevin Conolly MP (Riverstone) – announced 15 August 2022[41]
  • Victor Dominello MP (Ryde) – announced 17 August 2022[42]
  • Geoff Lee MP (Parramatta) – announced 22 August 2022[43]
  • Jonathan O'Dea MP (Davidson) – announced 6 September 2022[44]
  • Rob Stokes MP (Pittwater) – announced 30 September 2022[45]
  • David Elliott MP (Baulkham Hills) – announced 22 October 2022[46]
  • Brad Hazzard MP (Wakehurst) – announced 24 October 2022[47]
  • Melanie Gibbons MP (Holsworthy) – lost preselection 24 November 2022[48]
  • Matthew Mason-Cox MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[49]
  • Lou Amato MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[49]
  • Shayne Mallard MLC – not preselected 22 December 2022[49]


  • Stephen Bromhead MP (Myall Lakes) – announced 17 August 2022[50]
  • Chris Gulaptis MP (Clarence) – announced 22 August 2022[51]
  • Melinda Pavey MP (Oxley) – announced 28 August 2022[52]


  • Justin Field MLC – announced 17 October 2022[53]
  • Fred Nile MLC – announced 18 October 2022[54]
  • John Sidoti MP (Drummoyne) – announced 24 November 2022[55]



Voting intention

Primary vote
Two-party preferred
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote[lower-alpha 1]
31 January 2023 Roy Morgan[58] 33.5%* 33.5% 12% 1% 4.5% 15.5%[lower-alpha 2] 45% 55%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[59] 34%* 37% 12% 2% 16%
14–17 January 2023 YouGov[60] 33%* 39% 11% 17% 44% 56%
20 December 2022 Roy Morgan[61] 37%* 35% 11.5% 1.5% 5% 10%[lower-alpha 3] 48% 52%
16 November 2022 Private polling[62][lower-alpha 4] 33% 4% 40% 9% 1% 6% 7%[lower-alpha 5]
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[63] 35%* 38% 11% 1% 15%
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[64] 36%* 37% 11% 1% 15% 46% 54%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[65] 35%* 40% 12% 13% 46% 54%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[66] 30%* 43% 10% 2% 15%
12 September 2022 Essential[67] 36.4%* 32% 8.5% 13%
2 July 2022 Essential[68] 37%* 33%
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[69] 37%* 34% 8% 2% 19%
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[70] 41%* 31% 10% 2% 16%
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[71] 41%* 30% 11% 2% 16%
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[72] 43%* 28% 12% 1% 16%
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[73] 44%* 28% 12% 4% 12%
March 2021 Redbridge[74][75][76] 37.0% 3.1% 23.9% 6.7% 0.8% 4.3% 5.3% 18.9% 59% 41%[77]
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0% 9.6% 33.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.1% 11.0% 52.0% 48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%* 35% 10% 14% 51% 49%[lower-alpha 6]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[78]
  1. Resolve Strategic and Essential do not calculate TPP vote.
  2. UAP 1.5%, "teal independents" 1%, Animal Justice 1%, Legalise Cannabis 1%, Liberal Democrats 0.5, Other parties 10.5%
  3. Animal Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis 0.5%, Liberal Democrats 0.5, UAP 0.5%, Independents 5.5%, "teal independents" 0.5%, Other parties 2%
  4. Polling was conducted by an unnamed industry group.
  5. Includes "teal independents" at 4%
  6. Preference allocation based on previous election.

Graphical summary

Better Premier
Perrottet approval rating
Minns approval rating


Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Perrottet Minns
Perrottet Minns Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
24 January 2023 Essential[79] not asked 47% 36% 38% 27%
22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[59] 33% 29% not asked not asked
16 November 2022 Private polling[62] not asked 39% 47% 42% 27%
30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[63] 30% 29% not asked not asked
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategy[64] 38% 41% 37% 35% 26% 15%
23 September 2022 Newspoll[65] 39% 35% 47% 41% 42% 27%
18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[66] 28% 28% not asked not asked
2 July 2022 Essential[68] not asked 49% 35% 39% 22%
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[69] 29% 32% not asked not asked
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[70] 34% 23% not asked not asked
20–24 October 2021 Essential[80] not asked 47% 28% not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier Berejiklian Minns Berejiklian Minns
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[71] 48% 21% not asked not asked
15–18 Sept 2021 Newspoll[81] not asked 56% 40% not asked
28 July 2021 Utting Research[82] not asked 56% 33% not asked
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[72] 55% 16% not asked not asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader Berejiklian McKay Berejiklian McKay
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[73] 57% 17% 50% 17% 13% 21%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[83] not asked 75% 17% not asked
28 October – 2 November 2020 Essential[84] not asked 68% 21% not asked
21–23 October 2020 Ipsos[85][86] 58% 19% 64% 16% 22% 25%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[87] not asked 67% 22% not asked
16–17 October 2020 YouGov[88] not asked 68% 26% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[89] not asked 64% 30% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[90] not asked 68% 26% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[91] not asked 69% 23% not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
23 March 2019 election
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[92] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[93] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[94][95] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[78]

See also

  • Candidates of the 2023 New South Wales state election


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